Predictions

TBogg has predictions about the election:

  • No matter how many seats the Democrats take in the House it won’t be enough to keep the Republican echo chamber from pointing out that it most certainly is not a mandate, while all the time whining about the loss of control of the commitees.
  • Joe Lieberman is going to win and it will somehow translate as support for the war and civility and common sense…and nobody in the media will point out what a sleazy campaign he ran.
  • Several Republican congressmen with ethical clouds hanging over them will be re-elected only to have to step down later when indictments are handed down
  • You will see one politician elected who does not represent your district or state and you will wonder what the hell is wrong with the people of that district or state. That politician will probably be Tom Tancredo.
  • You should probably TIVO Katherine Harris’ concession speech so you can play it later at parties

My prediction is that no matter how many seats the Democrats win, it will be characterized as a disappointing amount, given how far ahead in the polls they were.

UPDATE: The ever-reliable Adam Nagourney‘s getting a head start in proving me right.

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15 thoughts on “Predictions

  1. Ananth

    Unless the Dems get 35 Plus seats and control of both house, this is a pretty pathetic showing considering how much people are sick of the republican congress. Hell, I am even of the mind that republicans should be taught a lesson for acting in the manner they have been, but then I turn around and I see the candidates and the agenda that Dems are offering. How is that their still some doubt that they won’t control the house?

    And of course, if somehow the republicans do hold on (which I doubt) then you will have all your friends on the internet declaring how it was stolen, supressed, intimidated or whatever else they did will be the only way that they won. As if the Democrats don’t do anything nefarious.

  2. Eric

    In a Republican Congress that holds no ethical investigations it’s still all of your guys resigning because of scandals. Democrats aren’t perfect by any means. Most of them are shady bastards too, but at least they try to hide it and maybe feel some remorse. And based on the polling if Dems don’t take control of the House I can say with absolute certainty it will be because of fraud. These robocalls being made now are a perfect example. Republicans would rather win and pay the huge fine then listen to the will of the people.

  3. Ananth

    the nefarious comment was really just aimed at voter fraud. You don’t think there aren’t dirty tricks going with democrats, or voting intimidation? As far as for fraud that happened in 2000 and 2004, as far as I know the only person convicted of election fraud was a democrat.

    Eric, you are so certain that fraud is the only the reason the would lose? That’s the biggest crap, either we win or they cheated? Maybe you don’t win because people actually don’t like your positions? I mean, obvioulsy it couldn’t be that, Ohio was actually carried because of Diebold.

  4. Ananth

    yeah you have a lot bullshit in the previous post. Every year its teh same bullshit, and every year nothing ever comes of it. As far as I can tell the only convictions for Election Fraud was on Democrats in East St. Louis. Lets see what MoveOn.org’s reward turns up. I wonder if the reward is avialable for Republicans too?

  5. Steve

    And based on the polling if Dems don’t take control of the House I can say with absolute certainty it will be because of fraud.

    Yup. The fraud’s already happening. The same kinds of fraud that happened in 2004 and 2000, but more of it and over a larger area. They’ve had practice.

    Honestly, the only reason at this point to make some “it doesn’t matter, both parties are corrupt” argument is ignorance, either willful or neglectful.

  6. Steve

    That’s the biggest crap, either we win or they cheated?

    No, it’s “They’re cheating, I hope we can pull it out anyway.”

    I have many links in the preceding post about this, you know.

  7. Eric

    “Maybe you don’t win because people actually don’t like your positions.”

    That was true in previous elections. In this election not liking your guy seems to be enough. People want change even if they’re not sure what it’s going to be.

    Polls are used because they’re generally accurate within a few percentage points. It doesn’t surprise me that not much has been found about the last election since the 109th wasn’t really big on accountability and oversight and most of the accusations were against them. I also don’t presume that it’s all Republican, but you’ve got Rove.

    I heard somewhere that 50% of districts have new electronic machinery since all the money allocated by Congress had to be spent by this election. With previous methods one person could do little to affect the outcome of an election. With the Diebold machines I’m pretty sure I could hack in to the Access databases add a few thousand and get out w/o anyone knowing the difference.

  8. Ananth

    Actually Eric I am pretty sure you couldn’t. Besides the fact that its not as simple as being an access database. Besides that there are several other things that would be a problem, the least of them being having actual access to the box, and access to the flash rom, knowing the underlying software to make a change. I am not saying it’s possible, but there is a complication factor to this that is not the simple. and don’t take this to mean I am satisfied with all the measures taken, I am jsut saying its not the simple.

    Secondly, it is ridcilous that you guys think these things are massive government coverups, and only greg palast has found the truth and dares speak it. It makes you sound insane, and it becomes difficult for people who disagree with you to even give you a listen.

  9. Tom

    There’s an important difference between saying the implementation of electronic voting has been done stupidly versus being done maliciously.

    For the record, i just think it was done stupidly.

    there are national standard setting associations that could have been included, paper trails should exist, thorough, standardized training for volunteers (who could then be tested).

    I don’t actually think Cheney owns Diebold.

    I do think he’s looked into it.

  10. Ananth

    Tom, Amen to that. You lose a lot of people who would agree with you about making things a little smarter when you accuse them of ill intent rather than just understanding that they were cheap and lazy.

    Any, it off to bed without knowing what the election results will finally be. Doesn’t look for Allen, but I am not going to cry myself to sleep about it. The dumbass deserves to lose. Though if the Senate ends up 51 -49, it’ll be a good thing that that majority of Dems did follow Kos and probably Steve’s advice and pursue a scorched earth against Lieberman… If I were him, I’d make John Kerry and a few of the other Senators that threw him under a bus before the primary bite his shiny metal ass. But I am petty like that.

  11. Eric

    Steve’s the crazy bleeding heart blogger. I’m the practical one. And I do agree with Tom. I wasn’t implying the electronic machines were implemented for the purpose of fraud, just that it’ll be harder to track and on a potentially grander scale. There’s no such thing as a recount when you just have a machine spitting out a number. How exactly do you inspect a hanging chad made of zeroes and ones? The machines are given to poll workers sometimes days before the election, and from what I understand it is a pretty simple Access database config. I couldn’t hack it, but there’s an HBO documentary that does a good job of explaining how one could.

    Do I think Rove has a coordinated effort to alter Diebold machines? Probably not, but I don’t know. You know why I don’t know? Because the one thing I do know is they’re most concerned with staying in power at the cost of effective policies.

    As of 2am – Talent just conceded, Webb’s up by 12 grand w/ 99% reporting, and Tester’s up by 11 grand w/ 65% reporting. And the Dems have picked up 27 seats with 24 still to go.

  12. Steve

    Tom, Amen to that. You lose a lot of people who would agree with you about making things a little smarter when you accuse them of ill intent rather than just understanding that they were cheap and lazy.

    May the lord strike me down if I ever forgo the opportunity to accuse you of being cheap and lazy.

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